|
Pakistan’s strategic dilemma
Jahangir Jaspal
Pakistan has one of
the most complex security environments in the world.
To the east is a traditional enemy; to the west lies
Afghanistan – occupied. At home – the third front –
there are grievances and upheavals – in addition, two
of Pakistan’s provinces have populations with strong
ethnic and tribal ties across the border.
Idealistically, a
country is safe when it has a very large area but a
very small frontier to defend; a country that has a
small area but must defend its entire frontier is very
precariously placed. Pakistan happens to be in that
difficult position. We have a large surface area and
have to defend the entire border on the east and on
the west, a self-styled trouble in Balochistan. We
also have a very sensitive coastline that must be
defended at all costs being a main artery. Our
geography compels us to defend almost every inch of
our land. The situation is further compounded because
no major obstacle divides us from our traditional
enemy. Mobilised columns can roll down from any
corridor in the east, open coast can be easily
exploited and from our west the porous border can be
easily penetrated. Our lines of communication are not
many, most of our industrial towns and important
population centres are in close proximity of the
border, well within reach from the initial deployment
range of even field guns, in certain cases a fire from
even elevated tank gun can suffice.
In scenario one, a
two-pronged adventure is expected from east & west:
After achieving anti-terrorism goals, Pakistan’s
importance to US and West reduces and India is able to
foster tacit understanding of the key powers for the
use of military instrument against Pakistan in the
name of uprooting terrorism. The objective of this
scenario will be to convert Pakistan into a lose
federation, subdue to ERF with reference to their
demands and to make Pakistan regress on
Kashmir. India will progressively
raise the level of intensity along LoC by standoff
engagements, limited ground raids, make unacceptable
demands, continue to conduct malicious propaganda,
attempt to create rift between leadership in Pakistan,
carry out harassment on the sea lines of communication
to raise war hysteria and create highly unfavourable
conditions. Causing economic difficulties, aggravating
logistics and demoralising the armed forces as well as
the general population, India may launch a tri-service
operation to degrade the armed forces and captures
sensitive territory, while remaining within perceived
nuclear thresholds. On the western side ERF may
conduct aggressive air raids, drone and selected
territorial ingresses, the intensity may gradually
increase.
In another scenario is
capping and rolling back of Pakistan’s strategic
assets by international coalition through the
mechanism of UN Security Council. The focus of US is
on disarming all potential enemies from weapons of
mass destruction. Pakistan presents a picture of
political instability which could be exploited by the
hardline elements. Western borders and Afghanistan
remain very unstable and Muslims all over the world
are perceived and projected as terrorists.
US-Indo-Israel nexus has matured and is jointly
striving in pursuit of anti-Islamic objectives.
Accurate picture of Pakistan’s strategic assets is
available and a casus belli to project our strategic
capability as detrimental to regional and world peace
is created. US and international community take up the
issue of capping Pakistan’s nuclear capability through
UN resolutions. Simultaneously, sanctions are imposed
on Pakistan to bring about an economic collapse.
The most probable
scenario is the permanent role of US in running the
state affairs of Pakistan whether through army or a
combination of army or political leaders. US would
like to see or cultivate an internal strife of the
first order, create political, social, cultural and
economic turmoil, leading to foster perfect conditions
for implementation of US will.
Realisation of the
thesis that the US cannot continue conducting an
effective counterterrorism campaign without
understanding how terrorist groups end. In the light
of suggestion proffered by the RAND Corporation i.e.
“US military should generally resist being drawn into
combat operation in Muslim countries, where its
presence is likely to increase terrorist recruitment”;
a new strategic policy of indirect (but permanent) US
involvement shall be designed. US may end the slogan
of war against terrorism. Reliance shall be placed on
use of local forces for fulfilling US interests.
Pakistan will be dragged into entering a new phase of
American war on terror, where local forces will fight
US war on terror under a client government. This phase
in which we have already entered will never end and
the seeds of discontentment, terror and what not shall
persist until Pakistani nation rises to the occasion
and decide to live without America. |
