Sinister plans to truncate Pakistan

Asif Haroon Raja

From 2005 onwards, dreadful concepts of balkanisation of Pakistan have been appearing in western and US media. The US think tanks and western press have gone out of the way to predict doomsday scenarios for Pakistan. Recently a map of South Asia has been published in New York Times showing truncated Pakistan which throws light on the sinister designs of our adversaries. Let us take a cursory look at the designs of our adversaries and the threats faced by Pakistan.

Short-term objectives against Pakistan

* Downsize Pakistan Army on the pretext of being a liability on resource constraint Pakistan and convert it into a counter-terrorism force. The army has already been attuned to fight low intensity war against guerrillas.

* Cut to size ISI by bringing it under Ministry of Interior run by its choice-man Rehman Malik. Political wing has already been disbanded and ISI directed to concentrate towards counter terrorism only.

* Impress upon Pakistani leadership that al-Qaeda is firmly entrenched in Pakistan, Osama bin Laden is alive and is not a myth and that Al-Zawahiri is based in Bajaur.

* Drum up threat of Talibanisation by projecting that the Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan is on the verge of taking over power.

* Convince the world that nuclear weapons in Pakistan have become unsafe and pose a threat to world security.

* Convince the general public, government and the army in Pakistan that the chief threat to the security of Pakistan is not from India but from the militants. In this the Zardari-led government and army leadership is required to play its due role to bring in a sea-change in thinking in the general public and young officers and men in army and ISI carrying anti-American and anti-Indian feelings. (Benazir had promised to bring this sea-change). In my view, 18 October and 27 December attacks on Benazir and Marriott Hotel blast were aimed at stoking hostility of the general public against the Islamic militants but their efforts failed.

* The Pak Army and the ISI to fight war on terror in accordance with US strategy and should shun whatever softness it has towards the Taliban.

* Pakistan military to re-identify its enemies and get rid of India-centrism, its antagonism towards Karzai-led regime and charter a comprehensive unified military strategy between US-Afghan forces and Pak Army to fight the common enemy conjointly.

* Underplay the menace of drone attacks targeting only al-Qaeda/Afghan Taliban and anti-government elements fighting Pak Army in FATA by arguing that the army ignores militant groups going across and targeting US-NATO targets.

* Solve Kashmir problem by converting Line of Control into permanent border, open up trade between Indian held Kashmir and Azad Kashmir, snuff out liberation movement and free Indian 7 lakh troops for utilisation in Afghanistan to fight war on terror.

* Devise ways and means how to denuclearise Pakistan without having to wage a war. 40% cut in budget of Strategic Planning Division has already been imposed and Zardari has given the hint of changing our nuclear doctrine resting on use of first strike option.

Long term objectives to balkanise Pakistan

* In connivance with India, Britain and Israel, continue with its efforts to destabilise Baluchistan, Sindh, north-western province including tribal belt and northern areas in line with its ultimate objective of balkanisation of Pakistan in case it refuses to become a client state of India.

* Within the ambit of fragmenting Pakistan into quasi states, priority accorded to detachment of Sindh from rest of Pakistan and making Baluchistan with Gwadar port a separate state and urban Sindh with Karachi port another state. After having created the desired environments for application of instrument of military, the decisive mechanised pincer to be launched in the narrowest waistline of Pakistan at Reti-Rahimyar Khan sector from where Ubaro is closer to Sui-Bugti area for link up of ground forces with para-dropped forces and Baloch insurgents. Prior to that Karachi to be destabilised at an opportune time to give deathblow to already dwindling economy of Pakistan; Indian navy to affect a naval blockade in Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea to disrupt supplies to Pakistan.

* Having made Punjab landlocked, choke flow of water from rivers flowing from Indian occupied Kashmir and also work towards accentuating separatist tendencies in Seraiki and Potohar regions for further fragmentation of Punjab. India is already gaining expertise in stealing water from River Chenab.

* Work upon a comprehensive plan to uplift FATA economically through massive US aid after its people have been brought in line. Alternatively, work for its amalgamation with NWFP, Pashtun belt of Baluchistan and southern and eastern Afghanistan to carve out Greater Pashtunistan under secular ANP.

* Within the ambit of gory plan, some knowledgeable sources say that destabilisation efforts in Baluchistan and FATA are auxiliary efforts while main effort would be launched in Karachi, the separation of which in their view is inevitable. Bogey of threat of Talibanisation to Karachi under the garb of which arms licences have been issued and weapons procured to confront the impending challenge is quoted as a step in that direction. Privatisation of national assets and transfer of foreign currency to foreign banks are also part of the plan. The main battleground will be Karachi and not Waziristan. Mumbai blasts in which two Pakistani ships have been named by India carrying weapons for the alleged terrorists could be the starting point. Sunni Tehrik may be blamed and declared as a terrorist outfit.

Pakistan finds itself at the crossroads of future battle for world supremacy by several contenders. USA, UK, Israel and India, four deadliest powers see Pakistan with jaundiced eyes and are sitting under one roof in Kabul hatching conspiracies how to balkanise Pakistan and how to snatch its nuclear bombs without having to wage a war. High hopes are pinned on Obama-led administration that it will herald a refreshing change from confrontation to conciliation and from arrogance to humility. Once Obama will shift into Oval Office on 20 January he will be briefed by the State Department, Pentagon, House of Representatives, CIA, FBI and some leading think tanks on foreign policy and security issues faced by the sole superpower and initiatives required to be taken to uphold unipolarism and how to gain victory in war on terror. Jewish lobby and Indian-American lobby would play their due role. All these policymaking institutions do not hold Pakistan in good books and had fed George Bush with scary inputs about Pakistan. There is no reason for optimism that a radical change of thoughts would occur among the American institutions; neither should we expect Obama to defy their point of view to please Pakistan.

While remaining in the sunshine of optimism, one must not be carried away by wishful thinking. Instead of flying kites, we should be more realistic and be mentally prepared for the worst so as not to sink in the pool of depression if Obama proves to be worse than Bush. USA and India never opt for mutually beneficial deals but prefer hegemonic monopoly over others. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing whom our dim-witted rulers have befriended. 2009 is likely to witness more bloodshed in Afghanistan, FATA and possibly Karachi. Instead of hoping to safeguard our security by tying the destiny of our nation to the whims of US and Indian leadership, we should charter our own course independently and put our house in order to be able to confront foreign-inspired intrigues and conspiracies collectively. An infallible method of conciliating a tiger is to allow oneself to be devoured. Our rulers are trying hard to save themselves from getting devoured but do not mind if the nation gets overwhelmed. Nothing can bring you peace but the triumph of principles.

The writer is a retired Brig and a security and political analyst and author of several books.email:ah.raja@yahoo.com